62 million iPhones?
This estimate depends on a couple of things. First, is Apple really going to release a cheaper iPhone? For years now, Apple has kept older models available to help grow market share, maintain user engagement with the platform, keep people talking about the product (and sales people), and drive revenue. Why change? The iPad mini has surely cannibalized sales of its larger brother and at a lower profit margin. Second, is the iPhone going to have a larger screen? Samsung has put forward great products such as the Galaxy S3/S4, Galaxy Note, and Mega Galaxy that have huge screens. Many users enjoy Youtube, Netflix, Crackle, their pictures, and social networks on their large screens. Is a cheaper iPhone without a large screen going to be an incentive enough not to pick Android or anyone else that puts forward a great mobile experience, including large viewing real estate?
Finally, is the iPhone still the must have smartphone? For some, the iPhone is about status. It does not matter if there are better specs on an Android handset. It is all about perception. A cheaper version may take away from that. For others, the iPhone offers a better user experience (Android users can argue this too). If Apple is close to this estimate after this mythical device is released, we may have an answer. However, if it comes out and Apple misses, then there are real questions about whether or not people care as much about the iPhone as they once did.